AI 泡沫与产业趋势 — 权威报告汇编

报告索引

产业/投资视角（看多 ↔ 看空）

| # | 报告 | 机构 | 立场 | 日期 | |---|------|------|------|------| | 01 | [Man Group: The AI Bubble — Hidden Risks and Opportunities](01_Man_Group_AI_Bubble_Hidden_Risks.md) | Man Group (对冲基金) | 🔴 看空 | 2026.02 | | 02 | [Capital Economics: Two AI Bubbles](02_Capital_Economics_Two_AI_Bubbles.md) | Capital Economics | 🔴 看空（盈利泡沫未破） | 2026.03.29 | | 03 | [Bill Gurley: AI Bubble Reset Coming](03_Bill_Gurley_AI_Bubble_Reset.md) | Benchmark (VC) | 🔴 看空 | 2026.03.17 | | 06 | [Philipp Dubach: $690B Arms Race & FCF Collapse](06_Philipp_Dubach_AI_Capex_Arms_Race_FCF_Collapse.md) | 独立分析师 | 🔴 看空 | 2026.03 | | 09 | [Michael Burry: The AI Reckoning](09_Michael_Burry_AI_Reckoning_Write_Off.md) | Scion Asset Mgmt | 🔴 做空 | 2026 | | 11 | [Julius Baer: Beyond the Bubble](11_Julius_Baer_Beyond_the_Bubble.md) | Julius Baer (私行) | 🟢 看多 | 2026 | | 10 | [Deloitte: State of AI in Enterprise 2026](10_Deloitte_State_of_AI_Enterprise_2026.md) | Deloitte | 🟡 中性（数据报告） | 2026 | | 12 | [Crunchbase: Q1 2026 Record VC Funding](12_Crunchbase_Q1_2026_Record_VC_Funding.md) | Crunchbase | 🟡 中性（数据报告） | 2026.04 | | 18 | [Bain 6th Global Tech Report: $2T Revenue Gap](18_Bain_6th_Global_Tech_Report_2T_Revenue_Gap.md) | Bain & Company | 🔴 看空（系统性缺口） | 2025.09 | | 19 | [J.P. Morgan: Circularity in AI Deals — $650B IRR Floor](19_JPMorgan_Michele_Kolanovic_650B_IRR.md) | JPMorgan Asset Mgmt | 🟡 名义中性·框架偏谨慎 | 2025.10 | | 20 | [Morgan Stanley: Financing the AI Investment Cycle — $1.5T Gap](20_Morgan_Stanley_AI_Financing_Gap_1.5T.md) | Morgan Stanley Research | 🟠 信用风险警示 | 2025.08 |

Gartner 三部曲（产业趋势权威）

| # | 报告 | 核心判断 | 日期 | |---|------|----------|------| | 15 | [Gartner: $2.5T AI Spending 2026](15_Gartner_25T_AI_Spending_2026.md) | AI支出$2.5万亿 YoY+44%，但AI进入幻灭之谷 | 2026.01.15 | | 16 | [Gartner Hype Cycle: 2022-2029 演进](16_Gartner_Hype_Cycle_AI_2022_2029_Evolution.md) | GenAI出谷、Agentic AI入谷、Knowledge Graph上坡 | 2026 | | 17 | [Gartner: 40%+ Agentic AI 项目将被取消](17_Gartner_40pct_Agentic_AI_Projects_Fail.md) | 到2027年底Agent项目取消率>40%、70%无法整合 | 2026 |

信用/流动性风险视角

| # | 报告 | 机构 | 日期 | |---|------|------|------| | 04 | [S&P Global: Credit Market Liquidity 2026](04_SP_Global_Credit_Market_Liquidity_2026.md) | S&P Global Ratings | 2026.02.17 | | 05 | [China Post Securities: AI泡沫催生私募信贷新危机](05_ChinaPost_Securities_AI_Private_Credit_Crisis.md) | 中邮证券 | 2026.04.09 | | 07 | [Fed Probes Banks' Private Credit Exposure](07_Fed_Probes_Banks_Private_Credit_Exposure.md) | Fortune/美联储 | 2026.04.10 | | 08 | [21st Century: Private Credit Redemption Gates](08_21Century_Private_Credit_Redemption_Fed.md) | 21世纪经济报道 | 2026.04.14 | | 14 | [CNBC: Private Credit Zero-Loss Fantasy Ends](14_CNBC_Private_Credit_Zero_Loss_Fantasy.md) | CNBC | 2026.03.25 |

深度访谈/学术

| # | 报告 | 来源 | 日期 | |---|------|------|------| | 13 | [American Affairs: Between Hype and History](13_American_Affairs_Between_Hype_and_History.md) | American Affairs Journal | 2026.02 |

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未能抓取全文的报告（需付费/被墙）

| 报告 | 来源 | 原因 | 链接 | |------|------|------|------| | Goldman Sachs "AI: In a Bubble" | Goldman Sachs Research | PDF下载超时 | [链接](https://www.goldmansachs.com/pdfs/insights/goldman-sachs-research/ai-in-a-bubble/report.pdf) | | Goldman Sachs "$500B+ AI Capex" | Goldman Sachs | 页面超时 | [链接](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/why-ai-companies-may-invest-more-than-500-billion-in-2026) | | Morgan Stanley Mag7 Rotation | Morgan Stanley | 页面超时 | [链接](https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/articles/magnificent-seven-rotation-portfolio-strategies-2026) | | CNBC 40 Tech Leaders AI Bubble | CNBC | 403 Forbidden | [链接](https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/01/10/are-we-in-an-ai-bubble-tech-leaders-analysts.html) | | Gartner 官网三篇原文 | gartner.com | 全部 403 Forbidden（第15-17号已通过第三方转载抓取要点） | [15](https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2026-1-15-gartner-says-worldwide-ai-spending-will-total-2-point-5-trillion-dollars-in-2026) / [17](https://www.gartner.com/en/articles/hype-cycle-for-agentic-ai) |