Gartner AI Hype Cycle: 4年演进追踪（2022-2029）
Timeline Evolution
2022: Foundation Models Era AI landscape focused on operationalizing technology rather than hype. Composite AI and Decision Intelligence dominated discussions, with Foundation Models approaching their peak.
2023: Generative AI Explosion ChatGPT's viral success launched GenAI directly to the "Peak of Inflated Expectations." This gravitational pull sidelined promising technologies like Edge AI and Knowledge Graphs into the "Trough of Disillusionment."
2024: AI Engineering Emerges GenAI descended into the Trough as organizations faced reality: - **GenAI projects burnt average $1.9M per initiative** - **<30% of CEOs satisfied with ROI**
AI Engineering climbed to prominence as companies prioritized implementation over excitement.
2025 现状 - **Trough of Disillusionment**: Generative AI - **Peak of Inflated Expectations**: AI Agents, AI-ready Data, Responsible AI - **Slope of Enlightenment**: AI Engineering, Knowledge Graphs
2026-2029 Positional Matrix
| Technology | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | |---|---|---|---|---| | GenAI | Trough (late) | Slope begins | Slope advances | Plateau starts | | AI Agents | Peak declining | Trough begins | Trough continues | Slope emerges | | Knowledge Graphs | Slope advances | Plateau starts | Plateau established | Post-plateau pervasive | | AI Engineering | Trough begins | Slope emerges | Slope advances | Plateau reached | | Responsible AI | Trough begins | Slope emerges | Slope mid-stage | Plateau reached |
Investment Implications for 2026
Smart Bets (技术进入生产力平台) - **Knowledge Graphs** — climbing toward Plateau of Productivity, provides grounding for unreliable GenAI - **AI Engineering infrastructure** — necessary foundation regardless of model choice - **Responsible AI frameworks** — accelerates regulatory approval
Avoid the Hype (正在/即将跌入谷底) - **AI Agents** (peaking now, will collapse into disillusionment 2026-2028) - **Generic "AI-ready data" platforms** (organizational complexity underestimated) - **Edge AI** (remains in Trough until 2027-2028)
Bottom Line
"The winners won't be those hyping about AI agents...but those who now invest in data infrastructure, AI engineering, and responsible frameworks."
核心判断：Agentic AI 2025-2026 走完 Gartner 框架里"过度期望顶峰 → 幻灭之谷"这段最惨烈的路径，节奏比 GenAI 更快。真正的长期赢家是下层基础设施（Knowledge Graph + AI Engineering），而非当下热度最高的 Agent 层。