S&P Global Ratings: Private Credit, AI Tech Issuance & Leverage — 2026 Credit Market Liquidity

Key Findings

S&P Global Ratings identified three major factors shaping credit market liquidity in 2026:

1. Private Credit Expansion Private credit has become essential funding for lower-rated borrowers facing substantial refinancing needs through 2028. The data is striking: private credit lending exceeded broadly syndicated loans for 'B-' and below-rated borrowers for four consecutive years, reaching nearly $146 billion in 2025 versus approximately $85 billion in syndicated lending.

2. AI-Driven Tech Issuance Technology sector debt issuance reached record levels, comprising 16.7% of global non-financial corporate bond issuance in 2025, up from 11.6% a year prior. The top five U.S. hyperscalers are projected to spend approximately $600 billion in capital expenditures in 2026 — a 38% increase over 2025.

3. Rising Leverage Concerns Analyst Nicolas Charnay noted that "leverage at nonbank financial institutions" alongside "risks related to AI valuations" warrant close monitoring. Limited transparency and reliance on short-term funding at highly leveraged nonbank financial institutions, particularly hedge funds, create potential financial fragility.

The report emphasizes that U.S. maturities for lower-rated debt will surge to $215 billion by 2028, intensifying refinancing pressure on leveraged borrowers.